The English Premier League season is almost upon us. As well as seeing whether the usual suspects (Manchester City, Liverpool) will again be vying for the top spot and the survival prospects of the newly promoted teams (Norwich City, Sheffield United and Aston Villa – see here for a previous blog I wrote about this), many eyes will be on the impact of Video Assistant Referees, more commonly referred to as VARs, which will be used for the first time this season.
Although new to the Premier League, VARs are not entirely new to football having been recently introduced to top flight club football in Europe in the German Bundesliga and Italian Serie A from the 2017-18 season and in the Spanish La Liga from 2018-19 as well as the knock-out stages of the UEFA Champions League from February 2019. It was also used at the 2018 FIFA World Cup where it has been credited with increasing the number of penalties awarded and a reduction in the number red cards. In other sports, such as cricket and rugby, the use of video footage to assist the on-field referee is very well established. The idea that players modify their behaviour in the face of increased monitoring has been a feature of sports such as the National Hockey League (in North America) and the National Rugby League (Australia) where the introduction of additional on-field officials saw a fall in the level of aggressive behaviour. Although it is also true that in sports such as cricket and tennis technology has been used strategically, especially when it can be initiated by the players.
The basic premise of having video assistance is to reduce rather than completely eliminate errors in terms of on-field decision-making, which for anyone who saw the Ashes 1st test played at Edgbaston last week there were plenty! The reason it is unlikely to completely eliminate errors is that despite the technology the ultimate decision is still made by human judgement. In the case of football, for the time-being VAR can assist the on-field referee in terms of determining whether there was any infringements in act of the scoring of a goal (fouls, offside), awarding (or non-awarding) of penalties, red card offences and cases of mistaken identity.
What impact might VAR have on the Premier League this season? As noted above, it might change the behaviour of players in the face of increased scrutiny. But it might also affect the behaviour of the officials. In a recent study recently published in Sport Management Review (see here for details), I, together with colleagues from Loughborough and Dublin, investigated the introduction, and subsequent extended role, of the television match official (TMO) on the awarding of sanctionable offences (yellow and red cards and penalty tries) in matches played during the group stages of the European Rugby Cup and the European Rugby Champions Cup. We find that the introduction of the TMO influenced the incidence of sanctions but not in a way that one might have expected. We found that the number of sanctionable offences issued to the away team increases even when controlling for other factors including the quality of the two teams – we had expected it to fall. One interpretation of this is that referees may have been consciously (or unconsciously) seeking to avoid contributing to home bias before the introduction of the additional official. We believe this finding has important implications for the training of match officials, especially since video assistance might not be present in all the games that they will officiate.
Undeniably the use of video assistance has increased the duration of sporting contests. This is perhaps fair enough if a correct decision is ultimately arrived at but our research suggests this might not always be the case, especially if it is unfavourable to the home team. Even in instances when the home team is (correctly) penalised this might increase the social pressure exerted by a vociferous and partisan crowd towards the on-field referee to make subsequent decisions that favour the home team. This is arguably even more likely in football where, unlike cricket and rugby where the crowd can hear the video assistance and see how the outcome was derived on a big screen in the stadium, there remains a lack of transparency between the match officials and the crowd.
Overall VARs and TMOs can add to the spectacle of sporting contests. Expect to see more time added on at the end of games and perhaps less aggressive behaviour but do not expect to see any reduction in home advantage – and don’t be surprised if it increases.
Editors note: The title of this blog should be read to the tune of 1981 smash hit Da Da Da by Trio.