By Pete Dawson
The FIFA World Cup, the quadrennial international men’s football (soccer) championship is upon us again but not at the time of year we are typically used to. This is the first championship to take place outside of the traditional months of May, June, and July (when most domestic leagues, certainly those in Europe at least, have finished). It is also being held in Qatar – the first time in the Middle East. The timing and location of this World Cup has been the subject of a lot of debate and criticism.
Much has happened since the last World Cup, held in Russia in 2018. What has not changed has been the teams expected to be in the running to win the tournament. Back in 2018, Brazil, Germany, Spain, and France were seen as the main contenders; the latter were crowned winners after beating Croatia in the final. Brazil, Spain, France are also highly fancied this time, and Argentina is a front-runner with several forecasters and betting markets.
How are these predictions made? Methodologies differ and in more recent times have become more sophisticated. A celebrated but very unscientific approach was used in the 2010 World Cup (and during the UEFA 2008 European Championships) whereby an octopus named Paul made predictions of matches (seriously, I am not kidding). Prior to a match (in all but one case involving Germany), Paul was presented with two clear plastic boxes containing a mussel or an oyster. Each container was marked with a flag representing the two teams involved in the contest. The box which Paul opened first was deemed to be the predicted winner of the match. Paul accurately predicted the outcome of all eight matches, including Germany’s 4-1 demolition of England in the round of 16 (which might have been so different had Frank Lampard’s “goal” been awarded but I’m probably clutching at straws!) and Spain’s victory in the final over the Netherlands. Very impressive.
Other methodological approaches differ from Paul in that they estimate what can be broadly described as a sporting production function. In conventional economics, a standard production function expresses the relationship between factors of production (labour and capital) or inputs to the output produced. In a sporting context, we can think about the product as being the game with the labour inputs being the players, managers and coaches and capital being the financial and physical infrastructure (e.g., stadium, training facilities etc.). The output would be the performance of the competitors (e.g., match outcome for an individual contest).
Clearly the quality of the playing resources is likely to be the most important factor. The quality of the players associated with a team like Argentina which includes the likes of Lionel Messi are much higher than the players who play for Qatar, for example. The FIFA Men’s World Ranking (details here) are a good marker for team quality and it would probably come as no surprise that three of the teams mentioned above – Brazil, Argentina, and France – are currently (as of 6th October 2022) ranked in positions 1, 3 and 4, respectively.
Aside from the quality of the players, there are likely to be many other factors which can influence team performance. I recall prior to the 2014 World Cup, when the famous cosmologist Professor Stephen Hawking was asked by the bookmaker, Paddy Power, to look at England’s previous World Cup performances and draw some conclusions (see here for Newsnight clip). His (production) model included factors associated with team formation, temperature, time of the match and colour of the shirt (for those familiar with econometrics, he estimated a logistic regression model). He also included the nationality of the referee, citing one of my studies (see here for details)! (A personal triumph for me which I like to remind my family of repeatedly!) He concluded that England needed to wear red, play 4-3-3, kick-off in the afternoon and have officials from Europe. He predicted Brazil would win. In this respect, he did not fair as well as Paul the Octopus.
Both Paul and Professor Hawking are sadly no longer with us, so what do I think of England’s chances? Despite getting to the semi-final of the 2018 tournament (and winning a penalty shoot-out along the way), finishing as runners up in the 2020 UEFA European Championship, and currently 5th in the FIFA rankings, I don’t expect England to go beyond the quarterfinals. The recent success of the England women’s national team, who won the UEFA European Championship this summer, suggests to me that they have a better chance of winning the FIFA Women’s World Cup next year. So, whilst I predict it is not coming home this year, the Lionesses might bring it home to England next year.
Banner Image by Fauzan Saari on Unsplash
Octopus Pete by Garneys Studio