By Ben Keegan (BSc Economics)
[This essay was written for the Government, Welfare and Policy third-year undergraduate module. Students were tasked with writing a blog-style essay on a topic linked to a group poster project. Topics were chosen by students and reflect their own interests. The essay gave them experience of writing content in an engaging style for a non-expert audience. What you see below is one of this year’s top-marked blog-style essays. Christa Brunnschweiler]
Today, there is more CO2 in the atmosphere than there has ever been in the last 800,000 years [1]. Average temperatures between 2010 and 2019 were at an all-time high [2]. In the years to come between 2030 and 2050 approximately 250,00 additional deaths per year will be caused by climate change [3]. In a time where global warming has become a topic of the upmost importance, there has been pressure placed on governments and leaders around the world to band together and tackle this issue. In the UK a new net zero strategy known as ‘Build Back Greener’ was established to secure a safer environmental future by decarbonising every sector of the country’s economy. But how exactly will these new policies and proposals achieve this net zero target by 2050? To maintain the focus of this piece we will evaluate objectives within the ‘Net Zero Strategy’ that affect two crucial industries – The UK power system and the transport sector.
One of the highlights of this new plan, was the decarbonisation of the UK’s power system by 2035. By transforming how we receive our energy through greener technologies such as offshore wind and nuclear energy [4], the country will be able to entirely sustain all homes and businesses with safer energy. Whilst this ambitious policy will not only accelerate its goal by 15 years from its original target in 2050, it will also provide an opportunity to construct these renewable sources of energy at a much cheaper rate, as the costs of solar and wind energies have decreased dramatically [5]. The government has most importantly highlighted how this expansion in usage of renewable energy resources will promote economic growth, both through employment and turnover. New ‘green’ jobs are created through new installations of renewable energy source locations such as offshore wind farms or hydroelectric dams. According to the ONS, employment within the low carbon and renewable energy economy (LCREE) increased by 16.14% [6], which meant an extra 34,800 FTEs (Full-time equivalents). Furthermore, LCREE generated approximately £54.4 billion in turnover in 2021 from all countries within the UK, helping to spread new income to all corners of our islands (see below for full details).
Table 1: The UK’s LCREE turnover and FTE employment for 2021 by country
| Turnover (£ Billions) | Employment (FTE) | |
| UK | 54.4 | 247,400 |
| England | 41.3 | 201,900 |
| Scotland | 8.7 | 28,300 |
| Wales | 2.8 | 10,400 |
| Northern Ireland | 1.5 | 6,700 |
However, this decarbonisation plan does not come without its disadvantages. Firstly, the costs of transforming both homes and businesses to work with renewable sources of energy is forecasted to be around £250 billion in total [7], with many houses costing up to £10,000 each. This expensive burden will of course be placed on taxpayers, consumers, and businesses in a time where the cost of energy in households is already too high. Furthermore, even if ministers did decide to offset this cost, by sustaining this project through furthering the national debt, then future taxpayers, consumers and businesses will be the ones that face the additional costs. These costs can also emerge from increased overall emissions when using both existing and new sources of energy, after all there will be a transition period in which both non-renewable and renewable sources of energy are provided. Overtime inflation will affect carbon prices making it increasingly expensive to both afford renewable energy and provide widespread installation. The graphs below demonstrate the difference in costs with a scenario where planned costs remain the same, as opposed to energy costs increasing.
Figure 1: Annual abatement measures net cost (a) default scenario, (b) high energy cost scenario
Source: UK Energy Research Centre
This process takes place because of what we call abatement costs. These are the costs associated with removing environmental pollutants that are created during production. The reason behind this increase in net costs between the two graphs is because the industry must wait until carbon prices are high enough so that it offsets the costs of any abatement technologies [8]. These costs will not necessarily affect the taxpayer as much but will in any case increase the overall costs to both private and public sector firms that have agreed to work alongside the government in its net zero strategy.
Another important factor that comes with fulfilling the Net zero target by 2050, is the decarbonisation of the UK’s transport system. Here, the UK government has pledged to phase out the use of high-emission vehicles for general transport. Instead, the country will move towards zero emission goals for each type of transport by various target-years, all contributing towards the 2050 deadline. The transport sector recently became the highest emitting industry of GHC emissions back in 2016, producing over 126 million tonnes CO2 emissions by the end of 2018 [9]. Therefore, it goes without saying that employing the use of low-emission vehicles would dramatically decrease harmful emissions within our environment. One important goal that the government has laid out is the implementation of a world-class walking and cycling system, which will aid in reducing the usage of the most common and heaviest-emitting vehicles such as cars. To achieve this, the Prime Minister announced in 2020 a £2 billion investment [10] which will help provide major UK cities with new features such as pop-up cycle lanes and wider pavements to encourage both walking and cycling. The government hopes that through this initiative, alongside other objectives which will target buses, trains and aviation, the country’s total output of GHC emissions will dramatically decrease by 2050. The graph below clearly showcases the government’s projections, and that by 2050 we will have achieved zero emissions throughout our transport system [11].
Figure 2: GHC emission projections through decarbonising the UK domestic transport system (projection versus baseline)
Source: Department of Transport
Unfortunately, this seemingly beneficial plan for our transport system is not easily implemented without any roadblocks or drawbacks. Whilst this industry would also suffer huge costs and in certain areas job losses through its transformation to net zero, perhaps the biggest barrier we would expect to see is difficulties associated with trying to change people’s behaviour. London residents alone make 4.6 million car trips on an average day [12] with 54% of households owning at least one car [13]. After all, the way individuals travel to work, schools and shops is a standard of everyday life. Like many norms in our lives, it can be difficult to adapt to a new lifestyle, and so many individuals would prefer to stick to the default option which can be viewed as socially acceptable [14]. For example, in the case of the transport sector, many people will still choose to travel via petrol or diesel vehicles rather than electric ones. Difficulties with this lifestyle change come from inconveniences such as installation of charging points, inconsistency of charging locations on the road and a shorter overall driving range. Moreover, as the government attempts to solve these inconveniences, they encounter huge costs. As it stands, there are approximately 18,000 charging points for an estimated 400,000 electric vehicles, and if the government wishes to meet its EV targets it must install a further 325,000 locations [15] whilst offering to pay 75% of the cost to do so [16]. Furthermore, as of February this year, the government pledged a further £56 million to achieve this goal [17]. Is this amount of money worth trying to change people’s behaviour simply because it is more inconvenient to them?
In conclusion, the Net zero strategy has already, and will continue to affect the UK’s environment and economy in a wide variety of ways. Both the UK’s power system and the transport industry have shown drastic examples of these changes and how harmful substances like CO2 emissions can be reduced. Despite the costs that come with these changes, such as the expensive nature of installing greener sources of energy in homes and businesses, or the cost of extending electric vehicle infrastructure to overcome social norms, the benefits of this ‘build back greener’ strategy seem to prevail. Alongside the creation of new jobs in a ‘greener’ power system and the dramatic decrease in GHC emissions from the government’s new walk or cycle initiative, there are countless other benefits that emerge from other industries due to the government’s new 2050 target. These can range from high-quality, low-carbon foods in agriculture [18] to reducing the overall cost of living by decreasing both demand and consumption of fossil fuels [19]. Like many environmental policies around the world, only time will tell when analysing how effectively the government and wider population will cooperate with future plans, but for now it seems that the country is headed towards a greener, brighter future.
Bibliography
[1] MyWaste Global Warming Review – https://meuresiduo.com/en/blog-en/the-current-status-of-global-warming-complete-review/ (Accessed 31 March 2023)
[2] United Nations Environment Programme – https://www.unep.org/facts-about-climate-emergency (accessed 31 March 2023)
[3] WHO: ‘Climate change and Health’ – https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/climate-change-and-health (Accessed 31 March 2023)
[4] Gov.uk: ‘Decarbonisation press release’ – https://www.gov.uk/government/news/plans-unveiled-to-decarbonise-uk-power-system-by-2035 (accessed 31 March 2023)
[5] Royal Society: Decarbonising UK energy – https://royalsociety.org/-/media/events/2017/10/decarbonising-uk-energy/decarbonisation-workshop-report.pdf?la=en-GB&hash=18D34BC909B18309A08F09E196DB0FA0 (Accessed 31 March 2023)
[6] ONS LCREE Statistics – https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/environmentalaccounts/bulletins/finalestimates/2021 (Accessed 12 April 2023)
[7] Institute for government – ‘paying for net zero’ – https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/article/explainer/paying-net-zero (accessed 12 April 2021)
[8] UKERC ‘The impact of increased energy costs on decarbonising UK industry – https://ukerc.ac.uk/news/the-impact-of-increased-energy-costs-on-decarbonising-uk-industry/ (Accessed 12 April 2023)
[9] The National Archives, ‘Decarbonising Transport: Setting the Challenge’ – https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/ukgwa/20210402060829/https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/creating-the-transport-decarbonisation-plan (Accessed 27 April 2023)
[10] Gov.uk Department for Transport: Investment in Cycling and walking – https://www.gov.uk/government/news/2-billion-package-to-create-new-era-for-cycling-and-walking (Accessed 27 April 2023)
[11] Department for Transport: ‘Decarbonising Transport – A better, greener Britain.’ – https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1009448/decarbonising-transport-a-better-greener-britain.pdf (Accessed 27 April 2023)
[12] Transport for London (Thematic Analysis): ‘Who travels in London and for what purpose’ – https://content.tfl.gov.uk/technical-note-14-who-travels-by-car-in-london.pdf (Accessed 28 April 2023)
[13] Transport for London (Thematic Analysis): ‘How many cars are there in London and who owns them?’ – https://content.tfl.gov.uk/technical-note-12-how-many-cars-are-there-in-london.pdf (Accessed 28 April 2023)
[14] Garcia-Sierra, M., van den Bergh, J.C. and Miralles-Guasch, C., 2015. Behavioural economics, travel behaviour and environmental-transport policy. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 41, pp.288-305.
[15] The climate change committee: ‘Briefing Document – The UK’s transition to electric vehicles’ – https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/The-UKs-transition-to-electric-vehicles.pdf (Accessed 1 May 2023)
[16] Gov.uk: ‘Electric vehicle chargepoint and infrastructure grants for landlords’ – https://www.gov.uk/electric-vehicle-chargepoint-grant-landlords (Accessed 1 May 2023)
[17] Gov.uk: ‘£56 million of public and industry funding electrifies chargepoint plans across the country’ – https://www.gov.uk/government/news/56-million-of-public-and-industry-funding-electrifies-chargepoint-plans-across-the-country (Accessed 1 May 2023)
[18] HM Government: Net Zero Strategy Outline – https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1033990/net-zero-strategy-beis.pdf
[19] Climate Change Committee – ‘Reaching Net Zero in the UK’ – https://www.theccc.org.uk/uk-action-on-climate-change/reaching-net-zero-in-the-uk/ (Accessed 1 May 2023)
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